Validation Benchmark
Phase B universe criterion: walk-forward validation on the top 20 crypto assets by market cap. A strategy passes when at least one asset shows statistically significant excess return (bootstrap p < 0.05) vs a naive buy-and-hold baseline — with Bonferroni correction across model families documented on the methodology page.
Universe evaluated
20
Top 20 crypto by market cap
Significant at 95%
1
Excess return bootstrap p < 0.05
Phase B gate
PASS
Requires ≥1 significant asset
Walk-forward setup
60/14
7-step horizon · linear model
Per-asset validation
Sorted by excess-return significance, then directional accuracy. Click a symbol for the full coin report. Export CSV ↓
| Asset | Dir. accuracy | p (vs 50%) | Excess return | p (excess) | Sig. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HYPE Hyperliquid | 35.6% | 0.053 | +0.00% | 0.035 | ✓ |
| USDT Tether | 100.0% | <0.001 | — | — | — |
| USDC USDC | 100.0% | <0.001 | — | — | — |
| USDS USDS | 95.6% | <0.001 | — | — | — |
| CC Canton | 62.2% | 0.101 | +0.00% | 1.000 | — |
| ETH Ethereum | 60.0% | 0.180 | +0.00% | 1.000 | — |
| BTC Bitcoin | 53.3% | 0.655 | +0.00% | 0.079 | — |
| TRX TRON | 53.3% | 0.655 | +0.00% | 1.000 | — |
| XRP XRP | 46.7% | 0.655 | +0.00% | 0.472 | — |
| SOL Solana | 46.7% | 0.655 | +0.00% | 0.063 | — |
| DOGE Dogecoin | 44.4% | 0.456 | +0.00% | 0.357 | — |
| ZEC Zcash | 44.4% | 0.456 | +0.00% | 0.414 | — |
| XLM Stellar | 42.2% | 0.297 | +0.00% | 1.000 | — |
| LINK Chainlink | 42.2% | 0.297 | +0.00% | 1.000 | — |
| RAIN Rain | 37.8% | 0.101 | +0.00% | 1.000 | — |
| WBT WhiteBIT Coin | 35.6% | 0.053 | +0.00% | 0.328 | — |
| LEO LEO Token | 33.3% | 0.025 | — | — | — |
| BNB BNB | 31.1% | 0.011 | +0.00% | 1.000 | — |
| XMR Monero | 31.1% | 0.011 | +0.00% | 0.338 | — |
| FIGR_HELOC Figure Heloc | 17.8% | <0.001 | — | — | — |
Confidence calibration — BTC
Reliability diagram: forecast confidence bins vs realized directional hit rate (7-step horizon, 5 bins). Perfect calibration follows the dashed diagonal.
Hit rate Mean confidence
Cached ~5 min. Not investment advice — see whitepaper for limitations.