Loading details…
EthereumETH
Current Price
$1,771.04
24h Change
-2.63%
Forecast
▲ UP→ $1,849.93
Forecast Confidence
81%
Price & Forecast history forecast 95% band
Investable signals — ETH
Composite ensemble (v1) and amplified Alpha++ (v2) for this asset. Not financial advice. Methodology
Why this forecast?
Transparent, model-grounded drivers — not a black box.
- Trend slope (linear regression)Projected UP over the horizon
- Fit quality (R²)81% of variance explained by the trend
- 1h momentum-0.27% last hour
- 24h momentum-2.63% last 24h
- Distance from ATH-64.2% vs all-time high
- Recent volatility±0.49% per period (std of returns)
Predictive scorecard
Composite 0–100 score from walk-forward accuracy, 24h momentum, and forecast confidence.
Total score
55.8C
Technical
49.4
Momentum
36.9
Confidence
81
Asset narrative
- ETH (Ethereum) — sector: Smart Contract L1
- ETH -2.63% over the last 24h
- ETH +1.25% over 7 days
- Forecast points UP · 81% confidence
- 24h volume $9.92B
Model Performance · Backtest
Walk-forward, out-of-sample over 430 points, horizon 7 periods. Honest evaluation — each model is scored only on data it never saw.
| Model | Directional Acc. | MAPE | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Linear Regression | 49.4% | 2.21% | 419 |
| Momentum | 47.0% | 1.41% | 419 |
| EMA Trend | 46.5% | 1.11% | 419 |
| Mean Reversion | 44.6% | 1.10% | 419 |
| Naive (baseline) | 4.8% | 0.91% | 419 |
Confusion matrix · Linear Regression (predicted vs actual)
| P \ A | up | down | flat |
|---|---|---|---|
| up | 154 | 113 | 13 |
| down | 76 | 53 | 7 |
| flat | 0 | 3 | 0 |
⛓️ On-Chain
Total TVL
$73.1B-0.59%
Stablecoin MCap
$310.8B+0.02%
DEX Volume
$5.7B+5.05%
Chain relevance
Ethereum$39.8B54.4% of global TVL