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SolanaSOL
Current Price
$75.83
24h Change
-0.19%
Forecast
▲ UP→ $78.03
Forecast Confidence
4%
Price & Forecast history forecast 95% band
Investable signals — SOL
Composite ensemble (v1) and amplified Alpha++ (v2) for this asset. Not financial advice. Methodology
Why this forecast?
Transparent, model-grounded drivers — not a black box.
- Trend slope (linear regression)Projected UP over the horizon
- Fit quality (R²)4% of variance explained by the trend
- 1h momentum-1.00% last hour
- 24h momentum-0.19% last 24h
- Distance from ATH-74.1% vs all-time high
- Recent volatility±0.44% per period (std of returns)
Predictive scorecard
Composite 0–100 score from walk-forward accuracy, 24h momentum, and forecast confidence.
Total score
33F
Technical
45.4
Momentum
49.1
Confidence
4.4
Asset narrative
- SOL (Solana) — sector: Smart Contract L1
- SOL +1.15% over the last 24h
- SOL +0.31% over 7 days
- Forecast points UP · 4% confidence
- 24h volume $1.37B
Model Performance · Backtest
Walk-forward, out-of-sample over 500 points, horizon 7 periods. Honest evaluation — each model is scored only on data it never saw.
| Model | Directional Acc. | MAPE | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 EMA Trend | 45.4% | 1.09% | 489 |
| Momentum | 45.4% | 1.33% | 489 |
| Linear Regression | 45.2% | 3.07% | 489 |
| Mean Reversion | 44.2% | 1.23% | 489 |
| Naive (baseline) | 6.1% | 0.92% | 489 |
Confusion matrix · EMA Trend (predicted vs actual)
| P \ A | up | down | flat |
|---|---|---|---|
| up | 118 | 105 | 13 |
| down | 103 | 104 | 17 |
| flat | 16 | 13 | 0 |
⛓️ On-Chain
Total TVL
$75.4B-0.27%
Stablecoin MCap
$309.4B+0.27%
DEX Volume
$5.4B+16.07%
Chain relevance
Solana$4.9B6.5% of global TVL