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LighterLIT
Current Price
$2.64
24h Change
+2.79%
Forecast
▲ UP→ $2.65
Forecast Confidence
43%
Price & Forecast history forecast 95% band
Investable signals — LIT
Composite ensemble (v1) and amplified Alpha++ (v2) for this asset. Not financial advice. Methodology
Why this forecast?
Transparent, model-grounded drivers — not a black box.
- Trend slope (linear regression)Projected UP over the horizon
- Fit quality (R²)43% of variance explained by the trend
- 1h momentum+0.04% last hour
- 24h momentum+2.79% last 24h
- Distance from ATH-66.1% vs all-time high
- Recent volatility±1.55% per period (std of returns)
Predictive scorecard
Composite 0–100 score from walk-forward accuracy, 24h momentum, and forecast confidence.
Total score
53.2C
Technical
52.3
Momentum
64
Confidence
43.4
Asset narrative
- LIT +2.79% over the last 24h
- LIT +15.76% over 7 days
- Forecast points UP · 43% confidence
- 24h volume $43.4M
Model Performance · Backtest
Walk-forward, out-of-sample over 210 points, horizon 7 periods. Honest evaluation — each model is scored only on data it never saw.
| Model | Directional Acc. | MAPE | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Linear Regression | 52.3% | 4.85% | 199 |
| Mean Reversion | 51.3% | 3.24% | 199 |
| Momentum | 42.7% | 4.78% | 199 |
| EMA Trend | 41.2% | 3.71% | 199 |
| Naive (baseline) | 7.0% | 2.97% | 199 |
Confusion matrix · Linear Regression (predicted vs actual)
| P \ A | up | down | flat |
|---|---|---|---|
| up | 81 | 51 | 11 |
| down | 27 | 23 | 3 |
| flat | 1 | 2 | 0 |