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PolkadotDOT
Current Price
$0.859443
24h Change
+5.83%
Forecast
▼ DOWN→ $0.846034
Forecast Confidence
0%
Price & Forecast history forecast 95% band
Investable signals — DOT
Composite ensemble (v1) and amplified Alpha++ (v2) for this asset. Not financial advice. Methodology
Why this forecast?
Transparent, model-grounded drivers — not a black box.
- Trend slope (linear regression)Projected DOWN over the horizon
- Fit quality (R²)0% of variance explained by the trend
- 1h momentum+0.28% last hour
- 24h momentum+5.83% last 24h
- Distance from ATH-98.4% vs all-time high
- Recent volatility±0.59% per period (std of returns)
Predictive scorecard
Composite 0–100 score from walk-forward accuracy, 24h momentum, and forecast confidence.
Total score
43.5D
Technical
51.3
Momentum
79.1
Confidence
0
Asset narrative
- DOT (Polkadot) — sector: Interoperability
- DOT +6.88% over the last 24h
- DOT +1.67% over 7 days
- Forecast points DOWN · 0% confidence
- 24h volume $102.8M
Model Performance · Backtest
Walk-forward, out-of-sample over 500 points, horizon 7 periods. Honest evaluation — each model is scored only on data it never saw.
| Model | Directional Acc. | MAPE | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Linear Regression | 51.3% | 2.04% | 489 |
| Momentum | 47.4% | 1.48% | 489 |
| Mean Reversion | 47.4% | 1.36% | 489 |
| EMA Trend | 44.8% | 1.25% | 489 |
| Naive (baseline) | 3.1% | 1.08% | 489 |
Confusion matrix · Linear Regression (predicted vs actual)
| P \ A | up | down | flat |
|---|---|---|---|
| up | 176 | 175 | 12 |
| down | 39 | 74 | 2 |
| flat | 6 | 4 | 1 |