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Falcon USDUSDF
Current Price
$0.997242
24h Change
+0.13%
Forecast
▬ FLAT→ $0.997438
Forecast Confidence
82%
Price & Forecast history forecast 95% band
Investable signals — USDF
Composite ensemble (v1) and amplified Alpha++ (v2) for this asset. Not financial advice. Methodology
Why this forecast?
Transparent, model-grounded drivers — not a black box.
- Trend slope (linear regression)Projected FLAT over the horizon
- Fit quality (R²)82% of variance explained by the trend
- 1h momentum+0.05% last hour
- 24h momentum+0.13% last 24h
- Distance from ATH-7.3% vs all-time high
- Recent volatility±0.05% per period (std of returns)
Predictive scorecard
Composite 0–100 score from walk-forward accuracy, 24h momentum, and forecast confidence.
Total score
67.5B
Technical
69.5
Momentum
50.7
Confidence
82.3
Asset narrative
- USDF +0.13% over the last 24h
- USDF +0.13% over 7 days
- Forecast: sideways / flat
- 24h volume $506,626
Model Performance · Backtest
Walk-forward, out-of-sample over 346 points, horizon 7 periods. Honest evaluation — each model is scored only on data it never saw.
| Model | Directional Acc. | MAPE | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Mean Reversion | 69.5% | 0.04% | 335 |
| Naive (baseline) | 67.5% | 0.04% | 335 |
| EMA Trend | 61.8% | 0.06% | 335 |
| Linear Regression | 52.8% | 0.05% | 335 |
| Momentum | 51.0% | 0.07% | 335 |
Confusion matrix · Mean Reversion (predicted vs actual)
| P \ A | up | down | flat |
|---|---|---|---|
| up | 10 | 0 | 5 |
| down | 1 | 20 | 18 |
| flat | 55 | 23 | 203 |