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SolanaSOL
Current Price
$80.40
24h Change
+4.61%
Forecast
▼ DOWN→ $77.37
Forecast Confidence
62%
Price & Forecast history forecast 95% band
Investable signals — SOL
Composite ensemble (v1) and amplified Alpha++ (v2) for this asset. Not financial advice. Methodology
Why this forecast?
Transparent, model-grounded drivers — not a black box.
- Trend slope (linear regression)Projected DOWN over the horizon
- Fit quality (R²)62% of variance explained by the trend
- 1h momentum-1.35% last hour
- 24h momentum+4.61% last 24h
- Distance from ATH-72.6% vs all-time high
- Recent volatility±0.74% per period (std of returns)
Predictive scorecard
Composite 0–100 score from walk-forward accuracy, 24h momentum, and forecast confidence.
Total score
62.3C
Technical
51.6
Momentum
73
Confidence
62.4
Asset narrative
- SOL (Solana) — sector: Smart Contract L1
- SOL +4.61% over the last 24h
- SOL +23.29% over 7 days
- Forecast points DOWN · 62% confidence
- 24h volume $4.26B
Model Performance · Backtest
Walk-forward, out-of-sample over 164 points, horizon 7 periods. Honest evaluation — each model is scored only on data it never saw.
| Model | Directional Acc. | MAPE | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 EMA Trend | 51.6% | 1.63% | 153 |
| Momentum | 51.6% | 2.06% | 153 |
| Linear Regression | 51.0% | 2.51% | 153 |
| Mean Reversion | 37.3% | 1.89% | 153 |
| Naive (baseline) | 1.3% | 1.42% | 153 |
Confusion matrix · EMA Trend (predicted vs actual)
| P \ A | up | down | flat |
|---|---|---|---|
| up | 55 | 31 | 1 |
| down | 36 | 24 | 1 |
| flat | 3 | 2 | 0 |
⛓️ On-Chain
Total TVL
$71.8B+3.64%
Stablecoin MCap
$309.6B-0.12%
DEX Volume
$7.6B-1.81%
Chain relevance
Solana$5B7.0% of global TVL