Loading details…
POL (ex-MATIC)POL
Current Price
$0.076632
24h Change
+0.32%
Forecast
▼ DOWN→ $0.076396
Forecast Confidence
73%
Price & Forecast history forecast 95% band
Investable signals — POL
Composite ensemble (v1) and amplified Alpha++ (v2) for this asset. Not financial advice. Methodology
Why this forecast?
Transparent, model-grounded drivers — not a black box.
- Trend slope (linear regression)Projected DOWN over the horizon
- Fit quality (R²)73% of variance explained by the trend
- 1h momentum-0.59% last hour
- 24h momentum+0.32% last 24h
- Distance from ATH-94.0% vs all-time high
- Recent volatility±0.47% per period (std of returns)
Predictive scorecard
Composite 0–100 score from walk-forward accuracy, 24h momentum, and forecast confidence.
Total score
59.2C
Technical
53.5
Momentum
51.6
Confidence
72.6
Asset narrative
- POL (POL (ex-MATIC)) — sector: L2
- POL +0.32% over the last 24h
- POL +4.31% over 7 days
- Forecast points DOWN · 73% confidence
- 24h volume $34.1M
Model Performance · Backtest
Walk-forward, out-of-sample over 353 points, horizon 7 periods. Honest evaluation — each model is scored only on data it never saw.
| Model | Directional Acc. | MAPE | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Mean Reversion | 53.5% | 0.88% | 342 |
| Linear Regression | 44.1% | 1.47% | 342 |
| EMA Trend | 40.1% | 1.03% | 342 |
| Momentum | 38.6% | 1.27% | 342 |
| Naive (baseline) | 6.7% | 0.79% | 342 |
Confusion matrix · Mean Reversion (predicted vs actual)
| P \ A | up | down | flat |
|---|---|---|---|
| up | 94 | 40 | 10 |
| down | 84 | 89 | 13 |
| flat | 5 | 7 | 0 |
⛓️ On-Chain
Total TVL
$74.3B+2.39%
Stablecoin MCap
$310.4B-0.01%
DEX Volume
$6.8B-14.45%
Chain relevance
Polygon$954M1.3% of global TVL