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AvalancheAVAX
Current Price
$6.71
24h Change
+3.98%
Forecast
▲ UP→ $6.85
Forecast Confidence
28%
Price & Forecast history forecast 95% band
Investable signals — AVAX
Composite ensemble (v1) and amplified Alpha++ (v2) for this asset. Not financial advice. Methodology
Why this forecast?
Transparent, model-grounded drivers — not a black box.
- Trend slope (linear regression)Projected UP over the horizon
- Fit quality (R²)28% of variance explained by the trend
- 1h momentum+0.15% last hour
- 24h momentum+3.98% last 24h
- Distance from ATH-95.4% vs all-time high
- Recent volatility±0.64% per period (std of returns)
Predictive scorecard
Composite 0–100 score from walk-forward accuracy, 24h momentum, and forecast confidence.
Total score
50.2C
Technical
53
Momentum
69.9
Confidence
27.6
Asset narrative
- AVAX (Avalanche) — sector: Smart Contract L1
- AVAX +3.98% over the last 24h
- AVAX -0.35% over 7 days
- Forecast points UP · 28% confidence
- 24h volume $168.8M
Model Performance · Backtest
Walk-forward, out-of-sample over 339 points, horizon 7 periods. Honest evaluation — each model is scored only on data it never saw.
| Model | Directional Acc. | MAPE | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Linear Regression | 53.0% | 2.34% | 328 |
| Mean Reversion | 48.5% | 1.63% | 328 |
| Momentum | 46.9% | 1.99% | 328 |
| EMA Trend | 42.7% | 1.54% | 328 |
| Naive (baseline) | 4.3% | 1.23% | 328 |
Confusion matrix · Linear Regression (predicted vs actual)
| P \ A | up | down | flat |
|---|---|---|---|
| up | 123 | 93 | 12 |
| down | 43 | 51 | 2 |
| flat | 2 | 2 | 0 |