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AsterASTER
Current Price
$0.627007
24h Change
-0.50%
Forecast
▲ UP→ $0.632701
Forecast Confidence
3%
Price & Forecast history forecast 95% band
Investable signals — ASTER
Composite ensemble (v1) and amplified Alpha++ (v2) for this asset. Not financial advice. Methodology
Why this forecast?
Transparent, model-grounded drivers — not a black box.
- Trend slope (linear regression)Projected UP over the horizon
- Fit quality (R²)3% of variance explained by the trend
- 1h momentum+0.13% last hour
- 24h momentum-0.50% last 24h
- Distance from ATH-74.0% vs all-time high
- Recent volatility±0.35% per period (std of returns)
Predictive scorecard
Composite 0–100 score from walk-forward accuracy, 24h momentum, and forecast confidence.
Total score
32F
Technical
46
Momentum
47.5
Confidence
2.6
Asset narrative
- ASTER -0.50% over the last 24h
- ASTER -2.27% over 7 days
- Forecast points UP · 3% confidence
- 24h volume $41.5M
Model Performance · Backtest
Walk-forward, out-of-sample over 372 points, horizon 7 periods. Honest evaluation — each model is scored only on data it never saw.
| Model | Directional Acc. | MAPE | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Mean Reversion | 46.0% | 0.70% | 361 |
| Linear Regression | 43.2% | 1.25% | 361 |
| Momentum | 39.6% | 0.91% | 361 |
| EMA Trend | 38.5% | 0.75% | 361 |
| Naive (baseline) | 7.8% | 0.60% | 361 |
Confusion matrix · Mean Reversion (predicted vs actual)
| P \ A | up | down | flat |
|---|---|---|---|
| up | 79 | 69 | 13 |
| down | 68 | 87 | 15 |
| flat | 17 | 13 | 0 |