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CardanoADA
Current Price
$0.165762
24h Change
+2.88%
Forecast
▲ UP→ $0.172453
Forecast Confidence
16%
Price & Forecast history forecast 95% band
Investable signals — ADA
Composite ensemble (v1) and amplified Alpha++ (v2) for this asset. Not financial advice. Methodology
Why this forecast?
Transparent, model-grounded drivers — not a black box.
- Trend slope (linear regression)Projected UP over the horizon
- Fit quality (R²)16% of variance explained by the trend
- 1h momentum+0.23% last hour
- 24h momentum+2.88% last 24h
- Distance from ATH-94.6% vs all-time high
- Recent volatility±0.69% per period (std of returns)
Predictive scorecard
Composite 0–100 score from walk-forward accuracy, 24h momentum, and forecast confidence.
Total score
43.6D
Technical
50.1
Momentum
64.4
Confidence
16.3
Asset narrative
- ADA (Cardano) — sector: Smart Contract L1
- ADA +2.88% over the last 24h
- ADA -1.03% over 7 days
- Forecast points UP · 16% confidence
- 24h volume $375.5M
Model Performance · Backtest
Walk-forward, out-of-sample over 500 points, horizon 7 periods. Honest evaluation — each model is scored only on data it never saw.
| Model | Directional Acc. | MAPE | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Momentum | 50.1% | 2.02% | 489 |
| EMA Trend | 47.6% | 1.63% | 489 |
| Mean Reversion | 45.0% | 1.94% | 489 |
| Linear Regression | 41.7% | 6.94% | 489 |
| Naive (baseline) | 2.5% | 1.40% | 489 |
Confusion matrix · Momentum (predicted vs actual)
| P \ A | up | down | flat |
|---|---|---|---|
| up | 121 | 110 | 6 |
| down | 109 | 124 | 6 |
| flat | 8 | 5 | 0 |